This
URL is stockmarkethistorian/index.html |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stock Market Historian
This website is
updated to reflect the results of HK signals
(see table below), and also updated once per
year (in early January) to include the returns
of the year just ended.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Home
More Bio Annual Returns Compared EMT Challenge
QE Explained
The buy-and-hold (B&H) strategy along with
dollar-cost averaging has served millions of investors
very well for a long time. The new-found knowledge
imparted in my book provides specific answers regarding
when to be invested in the S&P 500 or when
to hold cash or go short the S&P 500. This
knowledge has the potential to help individual investors
grow and protect (G&P) their wealth with “sleep well”
confidence. The knowledge also will broaden the
perspectives of financial advisers, professional money
managers, market strategists, market technicians,
financial journalists and the academic community.
(For a comparison of the 4-year live test of G&P
returns vs. S&P 500 returns, click here.)
(For details on the G&P model’s challenge and the
Harris Karney [HK] model's challenge to the Efficient
Market Theory, click here.)
Regardless of your perspective, Louis Pasteur’s insightful
observation applies today: “Chance favors the prepared
mind.”
May the B&H model, the G&P model, and the
Harris Karney model help illuminate your financial path.
God bless you!
“People make their investment decisions in various
ways. Some favor looking at history. If you like that
approach, you should consider the popular buy-and-hold
strategy and the grow-and-protect strategy (based on the
brand-new Harris Karney market timing model) set forth in
this book. Dr. Harris writes in a user-friendly way that
can be readily understood by those less familiar with
investing and its terminology. I think experienced
investors also will find the book to be a worthwhile read.
The knowledge imparted in the book can help you manage
your wealth with confidence. An uncommon feature of the
book is the moving spiritual account Dr. Harris gives of
his life during 1997-2019."
Srikant Datar
|
More Bio In my book, you’ll see I’m a “numbers guy” who has turned an analytical eye to the S&P 500’s historical movements. Also in the book, I describe in detail—as it related to my stock market research—my spiritual journey as a Christian. For 30 years, I authored the Student Guide that accompanied the world’s leading Cost Accounting textbook. And many times during the last decade, my work as a stock market historian has been cited in Barron’s as follows:
(a baker’s dozen in
chronological order) 1. Michael Santoli, The
Trader column, Barron’s (December 1, 2003), p. MW3. ·
The S&P 500’s long winning
streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5%
pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s
length. 2.
Michael Santoli, “Dullsville U.S.A.,” Barron’s
(July
19, 2004), p. 19. ·
The S&P 500’s very low
volatility in January–June periods linked to the 4-year
U.S. Presidential cycle. 3. Michael Santoli, The
Trader column, Barron’s (August 16, 2004), p. MW3–MW4. ·
Of the 18 years when the
S&P 500 reached a YTD low after July 31, 10 saw the
year’s low occur in August. 4. Michael Santoli, The
Trader column, Barron’s (February 20, 2006), p. M3. ·
The Dow’s long winning streaks
of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback
compared to the current streak. 5. Alan Abelson, Up&Down
Wall Street column, Barron’s (October 27, 2008), p. 6. ·
The near-term aftermath in
U.S. Presidential election years when the S&P 500
was in a bear market on Election Day. 6. Michael Santoli, The
Trader column, Barron’s (December 29, 2008), p. M5. ·
Years when the S&P 500
fell 10% or more in the October–December quarter
typically ushered in a very weak next year. 7.
Michael Santoli, Streetwise column, Barron’s
(February
23,
2009), p. 15. ·
Years when the S&P 500
fell 10% or more in January or February had much more
downside in the following months. 8. Michael Santoli,
Streetwise column, Barron’s (October 19, 2009), p. 5. ·
The
S&P 500’s rally in 2009 was remarkably similar to
the rally in 1938. 9.
Michael Santoli, “Bullish Trends for 2010,” Barron’s
(January
4, 2010), p. 11. ·
The S&P 500’s near-term
prospects when its high for the preceding year occurred
in December. 10.
Michael Santoli, “Too Beautiful for You,” Barron’s
(February
21, 2011), p. 19. ·
The S&P 500’s long winning
streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5%
pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s
length. 11.
Michael Santoli, “Enjoying a Low-Volume Levitation,” Barron’s
(March
28, 2011), p. 21. ·
Years when the S&P 500 did
not close lower than the preceding year’s closing high
had an average return far better than the average return
for all years. 12. Michael Santoli, “Awaiting
September’s Performance,” Barron’s (September 5, 2011), p. 11. ·
The
S&P 500’s June–August performance as a predictor of
September. 13.
Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s
(January
2, 2012), p. M3. ·
Years when the S&P 500
total was in the range of -5% to +5% had a positive
tendency for the next year, but sometimes with nastiness
involved. Return to Home |
G&P
model vs. S&P 500 Return consists of two elements: price change and dividends earned. The G&P model was live tested for 3 years, 2017-2019: G&P Return S&P 500 Return Difference 2017 21.4% 21.8% -0.4% 2018 25.6% -4.4% 30.0% 2019 22.5% 31.5% -9.0% Mean 23.2% 16.3% 6.9% Harris Karney (HK) model vs. S&P 500 Return consists of two elements: price change and dividends earned. The HK model, which superseded the G&P model, has been live tested 11/12/19 to 12/31/20: HK Return S&P 500 Return Difference 11/12/19 to 12/31/19 4.83% 4.83% -- 2020 127.72% 18.40% 109.32% 2021 ? ? ? Return to Home |
QE Explained Here are some
informative videos. I would characterize
the first one as very funny/very serious. Perhaps
their contents might explain why the next bear
market, whenever it occurs, could be very
devastating to everyone who is long the market
(e.g., holding SPY). The purpose of the Harris
Karney model is to be short the S&P 500 (i.e.,
own SH) during the next bear market.
|
EMT Challenge A number of scholars at the University of Chicago, Stanford University, and MIT developed modern portfolio theory (MPT) during the 1960s (my book describes MPT, pp. 21-25). Most of the work was completed by the late 1960s. From a market-timing standpoint, the significant tenet of MPT is the efficient market theory (EMT). This theory holds that market timing is a fool’s errand, because stock prices are thought to always incorporate all information the instant it becomes known. The B&H strategy is popular because of the widespread belief in EMT. Since the late 1960s, at least five important changes have occurred, which form the basis for Kip Karney's and my challenge to EMT: 1. Brokerage commissions today are 0% compared to the 1960s brokerage commissions of 2% of total market value of the transaction to buy, and then another 2% to sell. 2. The bid-ask spread on high volume exchange-traded funds such as SPY (which mimics the movements of the S&P 500) today is typically 1¢ per share compared to 12.5¢ or more per share for stock trades in the 1960s. 3. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) became available some 25 years ago; they trade each day like stocks. 4. A revolution in computer technology has occurred, which includes the widespread use of algorithm-testing and other electronic spreadsheet applications, the Internet, online brokerage accounts and iPhones. 5. Some 50 years of stock market data are available today (the entire input data for the G&P model), along with artificial intelligence, which did not exist in the 1960s. The live tests of the G&P model (2016-2019) and the HK model (11/12/19-12/31/19) vs. buying-and-holding the S&P 500 are reported here. Return to Home |