This URL is stockmarkethistorian/index.html


                           Stock Market Historian

   This website is updated to reflect the results of HK signals (see table below), and also updated once per year (in early January) to include the returns of the year just ended.




                                        Annual Returns    Social
        Home     More Bio     Compared           Proof   EMT Challenge    QE Explained    Contact Me

             My name is John K. Harris. I am a Ph.D. in accounting and a Professor Emeritus, University of Tulsa. I was a CPA for 30 years. Via self-directed study for the last 23 years, I have become a stock market historian. In 2016, I self-published a book: The Grow-and-Protect Investment Strategy: Evidence and Inspiration (Revised First Edition). It is available on Amazon.  To learn more about my stock market credentials, click here.  My research partner is Kip Karney, a career microbiologist, who like me, is self-taught regarding stock market timing.


                    The updated HK Performance Record appears below, 11/12/19 to 12/31/20.  The 03/20/20 buy signal (S&P 500 2304.92) is still in effect as of 02/24/21 (S&P 500 3925.43). 


                    I recommend you spend 15-20 minutes at this website to get a good overview of The Grow-and-Protect book, which is a classic David vs. Goliath story.

                    To order the book, click on its picture just below.


G&P book 2nd ed 2020Description of Book

            The buy-and-hold (B&H) strategy along with dollar-cost averaging has served millions of investors very well for a long time. The new-found knowledge imparted in my book provides specific answers regarding when to be invested in the S&P 500 or when to hold cash or go short the S&P 500. This knowledge has the potential to help individual investors grow and protect (G&P) their wealth with “sleep well” confidence. The knowledge also will broaden the perspectives of financial advisers, professional money managers, market strategists, market technicians, financial journalists and the academic community.  (For a comparison of the 4-year live test of G&P returns vs. S&P 500 returns, click here.)  (For details on the G&P model’s challenge and the Harris Karney [HK] model's challenge to the Efficient Market Theory, click here.) Regardless of your perspective, Louis Pasteur’s insightful observation applies today: “Chance favors the prepared mind.”

            May the B&H model, the G&P model, and the Harris Karney model help illuminate your financial path. God bless you!


Endorsement of Book

            “People make their investment decisions in various ways. Some favor looking at history. If you like that approach, you should consider the popular buy-and-hold strategy and the grow-and-protect strategy (based on the brand-new Harris Karney market timing model) set forth in this book. Dr. Harris writes in a user-friendly way that can be readily understood by those less familiar with investing and its terminology. I think experienced investors also will find the book to be a worthwhile read. The knowledge imparted in the book can help you manage your wealth with confidence. An uncommon feature of the book is the moving spiritual account Dr. Harris gives of his life during 1997-2019."

                                                                       Srikant Datar
                                                                       Dean, Harvard Business School



HK Performance Record, 11/12/19 inception–09/08/21







  Date S&P 500 HK
Signal Number
HK
Signal
Gain or Loss
from Signal
to Signal
IRA
Balance








11/12/19 3091.84 1 Buy SPY
   N.A.  
$10,000
02/24/20 3225.89 2 Sell SPY & buy SH
  4.34%  10,434
03/04/20 3130.12 3 Sell SH & buy SPY   2.97%  10,743
03/06/20 2972.37 4 Sell SPY & buy SH −5.04%  10,202
03/09/20 2746.56 5 Sell SH & buy SPY   7.60%  10,977
03/10/20 2882.82 6 Sell SPY & buy SH   4.96%  11,521
03/16/20 2386.13 7 Sell SH & buy SPY  17.23%  13,507
03/17/20 2529.19 8 Sell SPY & buy SH   6.00%  14,316
03/18/20 2398.10 9 Sell SH & buy SPY   5.18%  15,058
03/20/20 2304.92 10 Sell SPY & buy SH  -3.89%  14,473
03/23/20
2237.40
11 Sell SH & buy SPY   2.93%
 14,897

03/25/21
3909.52
12
Sell SPY & buy SH  74.73%
 26,030

03/29/21
3971.09
13
Sell SH & buy SPY  -1.57%
 25,621

09/08/21 4514.07
NA Pseudo Sell SPY*   13.67%
 29,124










    *see my book, 2nd edition (2020), p. 72









      B&H (4514.07 ÷ 3091.84) −1 =  46.00%, or $10,000 x (1+ 46.00%) = $14,600

     The bottom line: ($29,124 ÷ $14,600) −1 = 99.48%; HK beat B&H by 99.48% in HK's 21.9 months of existence.








             Note: Based on ongoing research, the live trades for 10/27/20 and 11/03/20 have been eliminated in the

             table above.  Those trades had generated a small gain of 0.64%. 







                                                                    website last updated 9/9/2021 14:30 CT



























More Bio


            In my book, you’ll see I’m a “numbers guy” who has turned an analytical eye to the S&P 500’s historical movements. Also in the book, I describe in detail—as it related to my stock market research—my spiritual journey as a Christian.
            For 30 years, I authored the Student Guide that accompanied the world’s leading Cost Accounting textbook. And many times during the last decade, my work as a stock market historian has been cited in Barron’s as follows:  


John K. Harris Research Cited in Barron’s

(a baker’s dozen in chronological order)
 Note: Mike Santoli is now (February 2020) Senior Market Commentator at CNBC.

1. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (December 1, 2003), p. MW3.

·     The S&P 500’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s length.

2. Michael Santoli, “Dullsville U.S.A.,” Barron’s (July 19, 2004), p. 19.

·     The S&P 500’s very low volatility in January–June periods linked to the 4-year U.S. Presidential cycle.

3. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (August 16, 2004), p. MW3–MW4.

·     Of the 18 years when the S&P 500 reached a YTD low after July 31, 10 saw the year’s low occur in August.

4. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (February 20, 2006), p. M3.

·     The Dow’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback compared to the current streak.

5. Alan Abelson, Up&Down Wall Street column, Barron’s (October 27, 2008), p. 6.

·     The near-term aftermath in U.S. Presidential election years when the S&P 500 was in a bear market on Election Day.

6. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (December 29, 2008), p. M5.

·     Years when the S&P 500 fell 10% or more in the October–December quarter typically ushered in a very weak next year.

7. Michael Santoli, Streetwise column, Barron’s (February 23, 2009), p. 15.

·     Years when the S&P 500 fell 10% or more in January or February had much more downside in the following months.

8. Michael Santoli, Streetwise column, Barron’s (October 19, 2009), p. 5.

·     The S&P 500’s rally in 2009 was remarkably similar to the rally in 1938.

9. Michael Santoli, “Bullish Trends for 2010,” Barron’s (January 4, 2010), p. 11.

·     The S&P 500’s near-term prospects when its high for the preceding year occurred in December.

10. Michael Santoli, “Too Beautiful for You,” Barron’s (February 21, 2011), p. 19.

·     The S&P 500’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s length.

11. Michael Santoli, “Enjoying a Low-Volume Levitation,” Barron’s (March 28, 2011), p. 21.

·     Years when the S&P 500 did not close lower than the preceding year’s closing high had an average return far better than the average return for all years.

12. Michael Santoli, “Awaiting September’s Performance,” Barron’s (September 5, 2011), p. 11.

·     The S&P 500’s June–August performance as a predictor of September.

13. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (January 2, 2012), p. M3.

·     Years when the S&P 500 total was in the range of -5% to +5% had a positive tendency for the next year, but sometimes with nastiness involved.


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G&P model vs. S&P 500

Return consists of two elements: price change and dividends earned. The G&P model was live tested for 3 years, 2017-2019:


                            G&P Return    S&P 500 Return    Difference
     
                 2017        21.4%                 21.8%                    -0.4%
                 2018        25.6%                  -4.4%                   30.0%
                 2019        22.5%                 31.5%                    -9.0%
                 Mean       23.2%                 16.3%                     6.9%

Harris Karney (HK) model vs. S&P 500

Return consists of two elements: price change and dividends earned. The HK model, which superseded the G&P model, has been live tested 11/12/19 to 12/31/20:


                              HK Return    S&P 500 Return      Difference

11/12/19 to 12/31/19        4.83%               4.83%                      --
                 2020      127.72%             18.40%                109.32%
                 2021            ?                        ?                             ?         
 

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                                                      Social Proof

The HK Performance Record, 11/12/19 to 3/19/21 (just below the book cover on the Home page) shows “The Bottom Line” that the HK model beat buying-and-holding the S&P 500 by 105.87% in 16.2 months. Does this performance appear too good to be true? This section of the website explains why I think investors would be wrong to reach that conclusion.

 

The HK model launched 11/12/19 with a Buy signal. Since then (16.2 months through 3/19/21), its Buy and Sell signals—10 in total—have been live tested using my email distribution list. Several of those investors have written a validation—“social proof”—that I sent them the signals in real time. Some of the social proofs are specific about the signals and some general. See below.

 

The HK model was backtested for 2001-2019. For the dates of all 178 trades during that period, see my book: The Grow and Protect Investment Strategy: Evidence and Inspiration (2nd edition, 2020), pp. 98-103.

 

I expect live testing the HK model beyond 3/19/21 will continue to prove its long-term value. Time will tell.

 

John K. Harris, 3/19/21


1. I really appreciate your HK signals. They have been a big help to me. I went back through my emails and this is what I found:

 

Sell SPY

Buy SH

2/24/2020

Sell SH

Buy SPY

3/4/2020

Sell SPY

Buy SH

3/6/2020

Sell SH

Buy SPY

3/9/2020

Sell SPY

Buy SH

3/10/2020

Sell SH

Buy SPY

3/16/2020

Sell SPY

Buy SH

3/17/2020

Sell SH

Buy SPY

3/18/2020

Sell SPY

Buy SH

3/20/2020

Sell SH

Buy SPY

3/23/2020

 

These 10 signals agree with those shown at http://stockmarkethistorian.net/

Mark Truitt, Oklahoma


2. I followed the HK model in real time during the year 2020 and hereby state that the model, applied to the S&P 500 (moving between SPY and SH), produced a return in excess of 125% for the year 2020. 
B. Stahl, Ph.D., North Carolina


3.  I went back and reviewed all of my buy/sell email recs from you and they all agreed with your website.  
Kyle Travis, Oklahoma


4. Professor Harris, my records show I received real-time emailed HK signals from you on the same dates shown on your website. Amazing performance.  
Bill Floersch, Illinois

 

5. As for my results from HK. I didn’t start following your signals until March 9th 2020. I also might have missed one signal shortly after that but pretty much since then I have fully been following your signals. As of today (3/1/21) my ROI for the past year is 90%!!!   
Adam J., California

 

6. For me, it was very informative to have your book introduce the basics of the stock market, the philosophy behind current investing and your inspired HK approach. I expect it will help many others, both beginners and seasoned investors. I hereby state the emails you sent to buy or sell during 2020 agreed 100% with your website. I'm sure you will continue to receive testimonials to the success of this strategy.   
Bob Biederman, Oklahoma

 

7. I compared your website list of buy and sell signals with my email list.  I found them to be the same.

 

2/24/20 sell, ok

3/4 buy, ok

3/6 sell, ok

3/9 buy, ok

3/10 sell, ok

3/16 buy, ok

3/17 sell, ok

3/18 buy, ok

3/20 sell, ok

3/23 buy, ok

Philip H. Viles, Jr., Oklahoma

 

8. I got the sell signal on 2/24/2020 and acted on it, and then the buy on 3/4/20. I was out for a few days because of medical stuff and missed signals until I saw buy on 3/16 and sell on 3/17 and then I figured the S&P was going to tank and was glad I was out with the gain I had received, and sorry to say I missed the buy on 3/23 (my own fault) because the stock market has been on an upward trend pretty much since then. I got back in during 4/2020. I was saved a lot of downward loss. I’ll sell when the stop light turns red. Wow, the stop light has been green for almost a year now as I write this 3/9/21!  
Ted Candler, Oklahoma

 

9. I've checked my e-mail history with the dates of the buy and sell signals on your website. They matched.  
Steve Cianfrone, 
Florida

10. I followed the HK signals, starting with 2/24/20, the best I could. I made no trades based on your signals between 3/10/20 and 3/17/20 because Schwab required me to convert my account to a limited margin account because of the very frequent trading in March. My return has been very good. Thanks.   
Hal Cook, Colorado



 

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QE Explained
 

Here are some informative videos.   I would characterize the first one as very funny/very serious. Perhaps their contents might explain why the next bear market, whenever it occurs, could be very devastating to everyone who is long the market (e.g., holding SPY).  The purpose of the Harris Karney model is to be short the S&P 500 (i.e., own SH) during the next bear market.


When the first video ends, just wait several seconds and others will follow.

Watch this video about quantitative easing where it explains what's going on to a level even Congress can understand it!  It would be astoundingly funny if it weren't so real.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k&feature=player_embedded#!

Quantitative Easing Explained

(When you use this link, then click on "Skip Ads.")


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EMT Challenge

            A number of scholars at the University of Chicago, Stanford University, and MIT developed modern portfolio theory (MPT) during the 1960s (my book describes MPT, pp. 21-25). Most of the work was completed by the late 1960s. From a market-timing standpoint, the significant tenet of MPT is the efficient market theory (EMT). This theory holds that market timing is a fool’s errand, because stock prices are thought to always incorporate all information the instant it becomes known. The B&H strategy is popular because of the widespread belief in EMT.

            Since the late 1960s, at least five important changes have occurred, which form the basis for Kip Karney's and my challenge to EMT:
1.  Brokerage commissions today are 0% compared to the 1960s brokerage commissions of 2% of total market value of the transaction to buy, and then another 2% to sell.
2.  The bid-ask spread on high volume exchange-traded funds such as SPY (which mimics the movements of the S&P 500) today is typically 1¢ per share compared to 12.5¢ or more per share for stock trades in the 1960s.
3.  Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) became available some 25 years ago; they trade each day like stocks.
4.  A revolution in computer technology has occurred, which includes the widespread use of algorithm-testing and other electronic spreadsheet applications, the Internet, online brokerage accounts and iPhones.
5.  Some 50 years of stock market data are available today (the entire input data for the G&P model), along with artificial intelligence, which did not exist in the 1960s.

The live tests of the G&P model (2016-2019) and the HK model (11/12/19-12/31/19) vs. buying-and-holding the S&P 500 are reported here.


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