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             My name is John K. Harris. I am a Ph.D. in accounting and a Professor Emeritus, University of Tulsa. I was a CPA for 30 years. Via self-directed study for the last 23 years, I have become a stock market historian. In 2016, I self-published a book: The Grow-and-Protect Investment Strategy: Evidence and Inspiration (Revised First Edition). It is available on Amazon.  To learn more about my stock market credentials, click here.  My research partner is Kip Karney, a career microbiologist, who like me, is self-taught regarding stock market timing.

                    The updated HK Performance Record appears below, 11/12/19 to 12/13/21.  The 12/7/21 buy signal (S&P 500 4686.75) is still in effect as of 12/13/21 (S&P 500 4669.21). 

                    I recommend you spend 15-20 minutes at this website to get a good overview of The Grow-and-Protect book, which is a classic David vs. Goliath story.

                    To order the book, click on its picture just below.

Description of Book

            The buy-and-hold (B&H) strategy along with dollar-cost averaging has served millions of investors very well for a long time. The new-found knowledge imparted in my book provides specific answers regarding when to be invested in the S&P 500 or when to hold cash or go short the S&P 500. This knowledge has the potential to help individual investors grow and protect (G&P) their wealth with “sleep well” confidence. The knowledge also will broaden the perspectives of financial advisers, professional money managers, market strategists, market technicians, financial journalists and the academic community.  (For a comparison of the 4-year live test of G&P returns vs. S&P 500 returns, click here.)  (For details on the G&P model’s challenge and the Harris Karney [HK] model's challenge to the Efficient Market Theory, click here.) Regardless of your perspective, Louis Pasteur’s insightful observation applies today: “Chance favors the prepared mind.”

            May the B&H model, the G&P model, and the Harris Karney model help illuminate your financial path. God bless you!

Endorsement of Book

            “People make their investment decisions in various ways. Some favor looking at history. If you like that approach, you should consider the popular buy-and-hold strategy and the grow-and-protect strategy (based on the brand-new Harris Karney market timing model) set forth in this book. Dr. Harris writes in a user-friendly way that can be readily understood by those less familiar with investing and its terminology. I think experienced investors also will find the book to be a worthwhile read. The knowledge imparted in the book can help you manage your wealth with confidence. An uncommon feature of the book is the moving spiritual account Dr. Harris gives of his life during 1997-2019."

                                                                       Srikant Datar
                                                                       Dean, Harvard Business School

John K. Harris Research Cited in Barron’s

(a baker’s dozen in chronological order)
 Note: Mike Santoli is now (February 2020) Senior Market Commentator at CNBC.

1. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (December 1, 2003), p. MW3.

·     The S&P 500’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s length.

2. Michael Santoli, “Dullsville U.S.A.,” Barron’s (July 19, 2004), p. 19.

·     The S&P 500’s very low volatility in January–June periods linked to the 4-year U.S. Presidential cycle.

3. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (August 16, 2004), p. MW3–MW4.

·     Of the 18 years when the S&P 500 reached a YTD low after July 31, 10 saw the year’s low occur in August.

4. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (February 20, 2006), p. M3.

·     The Dow’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback compared to the current streak.

5. Alan Abelson, Up&Down Wall Street column, Barron’s (October 27, 2008), p. 6.

·     The near-term aftermath in U.S. Presidential election years when the S&P 500 was in a bear market on Election Day.

6. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (December 29, 2008), p. M5.

·     Years when the S&P 500 fell 10% or more in the October–December quarter typically ushered in a very weak next year.

7. Michael Santoli, Streetwise column, Barron’s (February 23, 2009), p. 15.

·     Years when the S&P 500 fell 10% or more in January or February had much more downside in the following months.

8. Michael Santoli, Streetwise column, Barron’s (October 19, 2009), p. 5.

·     The S&P 500’s rally in 2009 was remarkably similar to the rally in 1938.

9. Michael Santoli, “Bullish Trends for 2010,” Barron’s (January 4, 2010), p. 11.

·     The S&P 500’s near-term prospects when its high for the preceding year occurred in December.

10. Michael Santoli, “Too Beautiful for You,” Barron’s (February 21, 2011), p. 19.

·     The S&P 500’s long winning streaks of 120 trading days or more without a 5% pullback placed in the context of the bull market’s length.

11. Michael Santoli, “Enjoying a Low-Volume Levitation,” Barron’s (March 28, 2011), p. 21.

·     Years when the S&P 500 did not close lower than the preceding year’s closing high had an average return far better than the average return for all years.

12. Michael Santoli, “Awaiting September’s Performance,” Barron’s (September 5, 2011), p. 11.

·     The S&P 500’s June–August performance as a predictor of September.

13. Michael Santoli, The Trader column, Barron’s (January 2, 2012), p. M3.

·     Years when the S&P 500 total was in the range of -5% to +5% had a positive tendency for the next year, but sometimes with nastiness involved.

The HK Performance Record, 11/12/19 to 3/19/21 (just below the book cover on the Home page) shows “The Bottom Line” that the HK model beat buying-and-holding the S&P 500 by 105.87% in 16.2 months. Does this performance appear too good to be true? This section of the website explains why I think investors would be wrong to reach that conclusion.

The HK model launched 11/12/19 with a Buy signal. Since then (16.2 months through 3/19/21), its Buy and Sell signals—10 in total—have been live tested using my email distribution list. Several of those investors have written a validation—“social proof”—that I sent them the signals in real time. Some of the social proofs are specific about the signals and some general. See below.

The HK model was backtested for 2001-2019. For the dates of all 178 trades during that period, see my book: The Grow and Protect Investment Strategy: Evidence and Inspiration (2^nd edition, 2020), pp. 98-103.

I expect live testing the HK model beyond 3/19/21 will continue to prove its long-term value. Time will tell.

John K. Harris, 3/19/21

1. I really appreciate your HK signals. They have been a big help to me. I went back through my emails and this is what I found:

These 10 signals agree with those shown at http://stockmarkethistorian.net/

Mark Truitt, Oklahoma

2. I followed the HK model in real time during the year 2020 and hereby state that the model, applied to the S&P 500 (moving between SPY and SH), produced a return in excess of 125% for the year 2020. 
B. Stahl, Ph.D., North Carolina

3.  I went back and reviewed all of my buy/sell email recs from you and they all agreed with your website.  
Kyle Travis, Oklahoma

4. Professor Harris, my records show I received real-time emailed HK signals from you on the same dates shown on your website. Amazing performance.  
Bill Floersch, Illinois

5. As for my results from HK. I didn’t start following your signals until March 9th 2020. I also might have missed one signal shortly after that but pretty much since then I have fully been following your signals. As of today (3/1/21) my ROI for the past year is 90%!!!   
Adam J., California

6. For me, it was very informative to have your book introduce the basics of the stock market, the philosophy behind current investing and your inspired HK approach. I expect it will help many others, both beginners and seasoned investors. I hereby state the emails you sent to buy or sell during 2020 agreed 100% with your website. I'm sure you will continue to receive testimonials to the success of this strategy.   
Bob Biederman, Oklahoma

7. I compared your website list of buy and sell signals with my email list.  I found them to be the same.

2/24/20 sell, ok

3/4 buy, ok

3/6 sell, ok

3/9 buy, ok

3/10 sell, ok

3/16 buy, ok

3/17 sell, ok

3/18 buy, ok

3/20 sell, ok

3/23 buy, ok

Philip H. Viles, Jr., Oklahoma

8. I got the sell signal on 2/24/2020 and acted on it, and then the buy on 3/4/20. I was out for a few days because of medical stuff and missed signals until I saw buy on 3/16 and sell on 3/17 and then I figured the S&P was going to tank and was glad I was out with the gain I had received, and sorry to say I missed the buy on 3/23 (my own fault) because the stock market has been on an upward trend pretty much since then. I got back in during 4/2020. I was saved a lot of downward loss. I’ll sell when the stop light turns red. Wow, the stop light has been green for almost a year now as I write this 3/9/21!  
Ted Candler, Oklahoma

9. I've checked my e-mail history with the dates of the buy and sell signals on your website. They matched.  
Steve Cianfrone, Florida

10. I followed the HK signals, starting with 2/24/20, the best I could. I made no trades based on your signals between 3/10/20 and 3/17/20 because Schwab required me to convert my account to a limited margin account because of the very frequent trading in March. My return has been very good. Thanks.   
Hal Cook, Colorado

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